Since the invention of the computer, science-fiction films and
books have been predicting that these machines would become intelligent
enough to take over the world, then reduce humankind to servitude. This
pessimistic prediction is far from reality: Computers have a
huge capacity for processing information quickly but scientists
have yet to create a machine with human-like "common sense"
and adaptability in new situations. As Anatol Holt, a researcher
in the field of artificial intelligence, once noted: "A
brilliant chess move while the room is filling with smoke because
the house is burning down does not show intelligence. If the
capacity for brilliant chess moves without regard to life circumstances
deserves a name, I would call it "artificial intelligence."1
Artificial Intelligence (AI) scientists have been struggling
for decades to perfect their intelligent creations but as Herbert
Simon (one of the pioneers of AI research at Carnegie-Mellon University)
recalls, "the biggest surprise of his decades spent trying
to recreate human intelligence was 'how easy the 'hard' things
were to do, and how hard the 'easy' things."2 In order to
illustrate this dilemma, Simon describes his first AI program,
completed in 1955, that could work out logical theorems but since
then, no-one has built a machine that can navigate across a crowded
room or understand a children's story. This "curious combination
of brilliance and stupidity" continues to confound the AI
scientists who strive to create humanoids like Data from Star
Trek: The Next Generation.3
It is interesting to note that even though AI's present limitations
frustrate the researchers, the American artificial intelligence
industry has thrived from AI's progress so far. There are numerous
applications on the market that promise to facilitate every aspect
of our lives, from business, to manufacturing, to home. This
paper will discuss the progress of AI to date, as well as forecasting
its uses in the future. AI is a complex subject with varied fields
of concentration, but the potential for future business opportunities
make it an emerging technology well worth harnessing and exploiting.
Before describing AI's present and potential applications, it
is essential to review the development and expectations of the
AI field.
THE ORIGINAL HOPES AND EXPECTATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE In the beginning.... In 1956, Marvin Minsky(computer scientist),
John McCarthy (mathematician) and other young scientists set up
the assumptions that have guided AI research since then. During
the two month colloquium at Darmouth, Minsky formed the "classical
top-down postulate that any thinking machine must emulate the
problem-solving ability associated with rational thought. For
a machine to be truly intelligent, ... it must possess the symbol-manipulating,
rule-implementing proficiency that characterizes human reasoning."4
This conclusion was based on the assumption that computers could
be equivalent to human minds if they could pass the Turing test
as efficiently as a human. Alan Turing, the father of AI, devised
his test to prove that computers could think if given the right
programs. The "right" program "can perform in
such a way that an expert cannot distinguish its performance from
that of a human who has a certain cognitive ability, then the
computer also has that ability."5 This definition implies
that if a computer performs like a human expert, it literally
has a mind like a human. This definition is flawed if you consider
that a program can simulate the process of thought and
come to the correct conclusion without understanding.
Searle, a philosopher who disagrees with Turing's "strong
AI" beliefs, argues: "Just manipulating the symbols
is not by itself enough to guarantee cognition, perception, understanding,
thinking .... Since computers ... are symbol-manipulating devices,
merely running the computer program is not enough to guarantee
cognition."6 Many "weak AI" scientists believe,
as Searle does, that computers and their processes enable us to
study the mind even though they do not have minds themselves.
This less literal approach to AI probably led the development
of the "expert systems" that we will discuss later.
If it can think, then walking will be easy.... Minsky
and his associates took their theory one step further by saying
that once a machine had the thinking program as intelligent as
a human, it could easily learn to move in and interact with its
environment. Unfortunately, when they first attached their "thinking"
computers to robotic arms and television cameras, "the early
results were like a cold shower. While pure reasoning programs
did their jobs about as well as college freshman, the best robot
control programs ... took hours to find and pick up a few blocks
on a table top, and often failed completely, performing much worse
than a six-month-old child."7 They discovered that the computers
could analyze and implement their tasks if there was no limit
to the time taken to do it. Real-time experiments and real robotic
arms had to be replaced by simulation programs to simplify the
process: The computers were taking so much time going through
every possible movement variation that they could hardly move.
This branch of AI research has progressed substantially over
the last two decades but some scientists were frustrated enough
to come up with another approach.
It thinks like an cockroach.... Rodney Brooks, considered
a radical in AI circles, focuses his research on the bottom-up
approach. He found his inspiration while watching flies buzzing
around a room. If a "stupid" fly could bomb around
without bumping into anything, he questioned, then what could
he remove from the classical top-down approach to help the "intelligent"
robots to move. His argument is simple: "sensorimotor skills,
not higher-level thought processes, are the foundation on which
intelligence is built. In other words, robots are going to have
to learn to crawl before they learn to think .... Intelligent
inorganic life will evolve, like organic life before it, from
simpler organisms.8 Brooks ideas may seem reasonable to the average
person but classical AI researchers oppose Brooks' insect approach.
Minsky criticized Brooks' methodology with irony: "Hey,
maybe we should all just devote ourselves to replicating insect
intelligence."9 This conflict developed because Brooks sees
his way as the only way whereas other researchers see his breakthroughs
as "merely a way of building a competent mobile platform
that could carry a conventional, cogitating brain."10 It is
interesting to note that Brooks' staunchest critics cannot deny
that his robots (Genghis and Attila are the most recent additions
to his menagerie at MIT's Mobile Robot Project) move about and
adapt faster to their environment than any of their "intelligent"
predecessors.
Brooks' "subsumption architecture" strategy enables
robots, like Attila, to walk to their destinations without using
the usual symbolic models of the world required by classical AI.
David Freedman describes this process as: "a menu of primitive
instincts and knee-jerk reactions such as TRACK PREY, MOVE FORWARD,
and BACK OFF. His robots have no central brain that chooses and
blends these simple behaviors. Instead, each behavior acts as
an individual "intelligence" that competes for control
of the robot. The winner is determined by what the robot's sensors
detect at any particular moment, at which point all other behaviors
are temporarily subsumed."11 Brooks's critics argue that his
machines are stupid but he points out that for what we want robots
to do, they are complex enough. More importantly, they are "faster,
cheaper, and more reliable" and therefore, have many more
immediate product possibilities.12 Brooks envisions legions of his
robots working together to complete a shared goal. He is presently
building twenty identical small robots in the hope that they will
react to each other like unthinking social insects, such as bees
or termites. Once they have mastered these behaviors, Brooks
believes that they will easily assimilate more complex demands
because of the "modular nature of subsumption architecture."
He explains that "distributing the problem-solving ... makes
adding higher level competencies simpler and simpler, because
you're not always trying to have this central intelligence understand
everything."13 If Brooks is correct, these simple interacting
robots could work in packs to nibble our lawns to the right length,
remove the dust from our carpets at night, or unclog our blocked
arteries.14
While Brooks thinks smaller, others think bigger.... From
the examples above, it is evident that Brooks wants to incorporate
the simplicity and size of insects into his robots. He
eventually wants his "gnat robots" to be "carved
from a single crumb of silicon -- brains, motors, and all -- at
an eventual cost of pennies apiece."15 This idea contrasts
sharply with the AI projects that presently receive the most government
funding. It seems as though AI researchers have taken the government's
preference for "big science" projects quite literally:
Hans Moravec (affiliated with Carnegie-Mellon's Field Robotics
Center) received NASA funding for his 12-foot-high, six-legged
rover.16 His other projects, the Tesselator and the NavLabs, are
equally large and absorb equally enormous amounts of government
money. While they may have been developed to perform dangerous
space shuttle maintenance for NASA or to transport materials in
war zones for DARPA (now ARPA), it is hard to justify such an
expense when you consider the risk inherent in new technology.17
Brooks' cheaper, simpler robots seem like lower risk investments
since he can build a few machines for what it costs Moravec to
produce one. Unfortunately for the US economy, foreign high-tech
companies have been more supportive of this emerging technology:
This year, ARPA will fund one of Brooks's projects for the first
time while the project's co-sponsor, Matsushita, has been funding
MIT's Mobile Robot Project since its conception. American basic
research has been historically more advanced than other nations
and the venture capital industry will have to maintain that position.
Robot applications of AI may not be explicitly profitable but
any advances made in understanding human or computer thought processes
will affect the AI field for decades.
And then there is Fuzzy Logic.... If we view AI programming
as either symbolic (Minsky) or connectionist (Brooks), Fuzzy Logic
is neither one. Both AI programming methods use traditional computer
reasoning: that is, precise membership requirements shuffle inputs
into specific sets with rigid rules. For example, if a traditional
program has one set representing "old" and another representing
"young," the age inputted is considered old or
young. With Fuzzy Logic, it is possible to have sets that represent
more gradual degrees of age. Fuzzy sets have "more flexible
membership requirements that allow for partial membership in a
set. The degree to which an object is a member of a fuzzy set
can be any value between 0 and 1, rather than strictly
0 or 1 as in a traditional set. With a fuzzy set, there
is a gradual transition from membership to nonmembership."18
The Fuzzy Logic branch of mathematics, invented in 1965 by Dr.
Lofti Zadeh, is popular because it is modelled after how humans
respond to the real world in real-time. For instance, humans
say a person is short or tall, old or young, thin or fat, but
these sets are not precise since everyone has a slightly different
definition for each word (see Figure A): Fuzzy Logic permits
computers to categorize in an equally imprecise way.19
Figure A: Crisp vs. Fuzzy Sets
It is ironic that this seeming imprecision makes products that
corporate Fuzzy Logic "intelligent" or "smart."
Zadah's mathematics is not imprecise, as its nickname implies,
and in fact, US industry now lags behind Japan in its use of Fuzzy
Logic technology because of this American misnomer. While Japanese
companies created products (such as rice cookers, microwaves,
and washing machines20) which incorporate their newly developed
fuzzy-expert systems, US manufacturers shied away from it because
its name implied uncertainty. American firms understood that
Fuzzy Logic output an undesirable fuzzy result. The opposite
was true: "a fuzzy system takes the combined fuzzy output
and converts it into a crisp, numerical result through a process
called defuzzification. The procedure is mathematically complex;
it involves finding the center of gravity, or the centroid, of
the combined fuzzy output set.(see Figure B)"21 This mistaken
interpretation indicates that the managers in American industry
were either too uneducated to appreciate the subtlety of Fuzzy
Logic, or were too comfortable with present technology to consider
something new.
Figure B: the Centroid Defuzzification Method
How do expert-systems fit into AI?.... "Weak AI"
researchers developed these systems that have become the most
visible commercial applications of artificial intelligence. The
simplest definition of an expert system is "a program which
embodies 'expertise' about something and which allows the user
to ask the computer certain questions about that expertise."22
Expert systems can take months or years to construct because
a knowledge engineer must extract knowledge from a human expert,
think of a useful way to present the information, then write the
program so that the computer can utilize the program's expertise.
All of the components of an expert system, namely the user interface,
the knowledge-acquisition module, the knowledge base, the inference
engine, and the explanation system, work together to extract and
explain the program's expertise.23 The knowledge base and inference
engine are the key components since this separation of control
(inference engine) and knowledge (knowledge base) is unique to
expert systems.24 There are various types of expert systems in
use -- advisory systems, clerical checking systems, ordering and
configuring systems, real-time monitoring systems, and battlefield
systems -- but they all work in basically the same way. First
of all, the user "consults the knowledge base asking and
responding to on-screen menus and questions, the inference engine
processes the expertise in the knowledge base, then it send its
conclusion to the explanation system so that it can explain the
reasoning behind the inference engine's conclusion."25 Since
traditional AI programs cannot trace the reasoning behind their
results, the explanation is also a feature unique to expert systems.
Users feel more comfortable acting on advice given to them by
an expert system because they know the reasoning process behind
the conclusion. Expert systems are fallible, like any other rule-based
program, so the explanation system allows the user to rule out
implausible conclusions quickly. On the other hand, it also permits
the user to analyze a line of reasoning that he/she had not considered.
It is important to remember that an expert system is limited to
the set of rules in its program, therefore it only has expertise
when "limited to simple, self-contained jobs which require
no common sense reasoning."26 Often referred to as "the
bureaucrats of AI," these systems can misdiagnose a problem
if the user's inputs stray, even slightly, from the program's
parameters.27 MYCIN, one of the first expert systems, demonstrates
the limited expertise that these programs have. Edward Shortliffe
(MYCIN's creator at Stanford) hoped that his program would aid
doctors in their analyses of bacterial infections. When doctors
inputted the symptoms of an infection, MYCIN's treatment recommendations
were often better than newly qualified doctors. Unfortunately,
since its goal was only to interpret symptoms in terms of bacterial
infections, MYCIN "cannot distinguish between a patient who
needs treatment for a bacterial infection and one who needs a
midwife."28 These significant inadequacies have not yet been
overcome so it is important that expert systems are treated as
people's assistants, not their masters as AI fanatics originally
believed. An expert system can increase an educated user's productivity,
but it is useless if its user is ignorant of its extensive knowledge
base and applications. This point is essential to the development
of the future competitiveness of American expert system producers:
If American workers are not trained to take advantage of their
intelligent computers, companies in the market will lose international
competitiveness due to their limited domestic market. The US
educational system must train its students to use up-to-date technologies
if the US is to remain ahead in the global AI market. In order
to forecast future business opportunities in AI, we must look
at specific AI applications already in use.
PRESENT APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Fuzzy Logic and Expert Systems lead the way.... Fuzzy
Logic and Expert Systems are already on the market, helping people
to simplify their daily routines. Here are a few of the firms
that incorporate AI applications into their current products:
NISSAN has recently added the Laurel, a fuzzy-logic five-speed
automatic auto, to its Japanese sedan line. Having fuzzy logic
in the gear control system gives the driver a "freer choice
of gears ratios (i.e. a lower first and a higher fifth). The
fuzzy logic prevents premature shifting from fourth to fifth gear
on uphill sections, even when the accelerator pedal is eased."
This fuzzy feature preserves the auto's transmission and reduces
revving that increases fuel consumption. Many other auto makers
have added fuzzy systems to their latest production lines.29
FUJITSU LTD. has incorporated fuzzy-logic control systems into
air conditioners, heating and refrigeration units, washing machines,
microwave ovens, vending machines, and automated currency exchange
machines. Fuzzy Logic, called fuaji riron ('fuaji' being
a nonsense word that sounds like the English word, fuzzy and 'riron'
meaning theory), has become the latest buzz word in high-tech
Japanese electronics.30 Fuzzy logic became so popular that Fujitsu
even claimed to have incorporated it into products when it had
not. The company recently acknowledged its erroneous marketing
strategy and is working to replace "unsophisticated software
that merely mimics the real thing" with actual fuzzy controls.31
In an effort to clean its soiled fuzzy software image, Fujitsu
and other industry giants have promised the Japanese consumers
that they will also develop fuzzy hardware..32
ARRIS PHARMACEUTICAL CORP. is using expert-systems to enhance
their chemists' knowledge of biology. The program scans "hundreds
of thousands of chemicals, recording each one's individual shape
and size" so that the chemist can use the programs knowledge
base to cross-reference any new molecular discoveries. Arris
hopes that the program will take some of the guess work usually
involved in drug discovery. Since the expert-system speeds up
the chemists' work, Arris hopes that it will soon develop a drug
that can decrease the progression of diseases, such as atherosclerosis,
which clog and harden arteries.33
KURZWEIL APPLIED INTELLIGENCE INC. has a speech recogition system
that doctors use to fill out medical charts quickly and accurately
while still in the emergency room.34 This $27,000 expert-system
has many benefits: "The system costs far less than a clerical
worker or two and pays for itself in six months .... And [its]
built-in 'knowledge base' retrieves and feeds medical data to
the doctor, prompting him to check for symptoms he may have missed."35
Doctors love the systems accuracy in this era of ever-increasing
malpractice anxieties. Kurzweil's system is more advanced than
most voice-recognition systems in use since its database stores
the most common phonemes, or normal speech sounds. Since it stores
frequently repeated sounds, rather than words, the program requires
much less computer power than tradition programs.36 This storage
method also enables the system to "process words that are
articulated at a normal conversational cadence."37 This breakthrough
will surely speed Kurzweil's method to the forefront of the speech-recognition
field.
VERBEX VOICE SYSTEMS INC. have also developed a speech-recognition
system that helps traders at Lehman Brothers record their transactions
as soon as they occur. They take special phones onto the trading
floor and as they speak into them, their trade orders appear on
their computer screens.38 The speech-recognition program's only
drawback is that it cannot understand what the trader is saying
if the noise in the room gets too loud. The only way to adapt
the system for such extreme situations is to train it to respond
to the user's voice when the most possible noise is in the background.
Expert systems such as these have varying degrees of intelligence
since they can either be "speaker-trained," "speaker-independent"
or "speaker adaptive." Speaker-trained systems require
that a user record the vocabulary that the computer will then
recognize when he/she next uses those words; speaker-independent
systems have a limited vocabulary but recognize any user's voice;
and speaker-adaptive systems begin by being independent but become
trained as they adapt to the user's voice.39 According to Voice
Information Associates, this speech-recognition application of
AI promises to grow by as much as 55.5% a year. If these business-oriented
products are successful, we may soon have speech-reactive computer
systems in our homes: Apple Computer Inc. have already announced
that some of their systems will offer speech recognition as an
option.40
FUTURE APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Some companies are developing new products that will incorporate
existing AI technology in order to update their aging product
lines. Other companies are investing much further into the future
by funding basic research centers that are intended for advancing
AI, as well as creating new technologies. Here are a few companies
who have various degrees of interest in AI:
PANASONIC has used fuzzy logic technology in its developing
product, the Home Cleaning Robot.41 The robot will learn the dimensions
of your dusty carpet by travelling around the edge of the room.
Then, it moves back to its starting point and vacuums until the
carpet is clean, or its batteries are depleted. The robot will
stop vacuuming when it only has enough power to travel back to
its recharging stand. It will repeat this pattern until it finishes
the room. Because of the built-in fuzzy logic technology, the
Home Cleaning Robot can determine how much suction power and beater
bar speed it needs to complete each job.42 This means that it can
sense the different needs for cleaning a wood floor, as opposed
to a shag carpet. It can also determine how much dust is on the
floor. Panasonic has not yet announced the release date and price
for its Home Cleaning Robot, but it should be a hit in the American
market if it works well and does not cost too much. Panasonic
already has vacuum cleaners out that use fuzzy sensors to find
dust but these machines are not self-propelled.
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP. envisions a "smart" air
conditioner that will learn to regulate room temperature according
to your exact specifications. Amal Kumar Naj explains: "Imagine
an air conditioner that starts automatically ... the moment you
walk into the room. And what's more, it recognizes you, remembers
your preference for comfort and maintains the room's temperature,
humidity and air flow to your liking."43 Researchers are developing
fuzzy and other AI systems so that, if more than one person is
in the room, the air conditioner can regulate an environment which
pleases everybody. Carrier (United Technologies air conditioning
division) presently holds 11% of the global market share but its
Japanese competitors, which hold between 8 to 4%, have already
incorporated some fuzzy features into their products that Carrier
is still developing.44
RICOH CO. LTD. has focused its research on neural technology,
the AI connectionists (Brooks) method of mimicking the physical
aspects of the brain. It is different from fuzzy technology because
it does not require complicated pre-programming before a neural-network
system can work. "Neural networks can learn by themselves,"
as Brooks' robots can.45 Ricoh's recently released experimental
machine (that uses neural circuits) is predicted to give PCs more
computational power than existing supercomputers. The experimental
machine is "a general-purpose desktop neurocomputer that
runs without software and acquires all computing capabilities
through learning .... The unit is some 500 times faster than engineering
workstations and about 4 times speedier than today's supercomputers,"
claims its developers.46 Ricoh hopes that its neural chips will
succeed the fuzzy logic chips already used in numerous products.
A comparison study of the two technologies indicates that Ricoh's
neural chips may overtake fuzzy chips in the next century, but
fuzzy logic is expected to dominate until at least 1998 (see Figures
C, D & E).47 The number of fuzzy patents released in Japan
demonstrates that this AI technology will dominate the market
until the US capitalizes on this present development lead in neural
networks.48 So far, US companies have paid little attention to
the innovative AI labs in academia whereas foreign companies are
funding major projects. Matsushita's involvement in Brooks' MIT
Mobile Robot Lab was an example used earlier in this discussion.
US firms must follow the example of their foreign competitors
if the want to maintain their international market position.
Figure C: Neural vs. Fuzzy Networks 1991
Figure D: Neural vs. Fuzzy Networks 1998
Figure E: Fuzzy Patents
NEC CORP. is another example of a foreign company that is taking
advantage of American basic research advances. NEC's newly established
Research Institute in New Jersey uses an old-fashioned philosophy
in an attempt to attract the most innovative researchers, namely:
"The best way to make money may be not to worry about making
money. The company hopes that the freedom it gives researchers
will lure some of the best young computer and biotechnology scientists
to what experts is quickly becoming a world-class basic research
lab."49 NEC evaluates the progression of its researchers'
work after three years to determine whether or not it can improve
the company's competitiveness in or understanding of computers
and communications.50 NEC's basic research focus contrasts with
the other US labs "fun-and profit" mentality. AT&T
(Bell Labs), IBM and GE all fund larger labs than NEC but the
mission of NEC's smaller Research Institute continues to attract
scientists who dream "of being able to do what you want to
do, unfettered by company bean counters."51 Since NEC focuses
on funding the best computer scientists in the US, it is probable
that one of its researchers will invent the next breakthrough
in AI technology. If you fund the best minds, it is only a matter
of time before you harness the best ideas: NEC hopes that this
assumption will be profitable for them in the future.
Thoughts on America's future.... Artificial Intelligence
promises to revolutionize human/machine relations but US government
and industry must fund more R&D if it wants to maintain our
technological lead. The Japanese have capitalized on fuzzy logic
technology, creating "smart" or "intelligent"
features of numerous home and office appliances. America could
use its advantage in general AI research to jettison ahead of
Japan in global sales by the beginning of the next century. Unfortunately,
the US government has focused its funding on "big science"
space and defence applications so US industry lags behind Japan
in smart appliance innovation. Artificial Intelligence has been
put of the Department of Commerce's "Emerging Technologies
List," as well as the Department of Defence's "Critical
Technologies List" but these moves are not enough. ARPA
and projects such as SEMATECH must increase their activity in
AI research if the US is to remain ahead. Furthermore, the US
must improve its secondary school education's record in mathematics
and science or no amount of funding will sustain the domestic
high-tech markets. If the American public is unable to appreciate
new technologies, such as AI, we cannot expect industry to continually
innovate.
There is a more insidious problem: American companies have become
so accountable to their stockholders (and their need for bigger
and bigger profit margins) that R&D funding has declined in
recent years. The venture capital markets continue to be strong
but the traditional high-tech companies must also invest in the
American economy's future by supporting R&D in-house and in
academia. Firms must stop resting on the profits created by decades
old technology and concentrate on getting the economy back to
being innovation-driven instead of being wealth-driven has it
has been in recent years. US companies should benefit from the
knowledge and innovative scientists that it has nurtured, instead
of foreign investors. AI is one of the emerging technologies that
can maintain the US technological edge for decades to come.
FOOTNOTES 1John Browning, "Cogito, ergo something," The Economist: A Survey of Artificial Intelligence, London, March 14, 1992, p. 5. 2John Browning, "Cogito, ergo something," The Economist: A Survey of Artificial Intelligence, London, March 14, 1992, p. 5. 3Mark Dery, "Terminators," Rolling Stone, June 10, 1993, p. 20. 4Mark Dery, "Terminators," Rolling Stone, June 10, 1993, p. 20. 5John R. Seale, "Is the Brain's Mind a Computer Program?," Scientific American, January, 1990, p. 26. 6John R. 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